This is one of those things in life, like voodoo, that just can't be quantified reliably with a mathematical formula.
Different cutter bit designs of the same diameter have different shear strengths. The same cutter design cutting in different materials act differently. The same material in different production runs may behave a little differently and reach shear strength at different cutting speeds and/or depth of cut. When it runs into a knot, the cutting conditions change and the bit breaks. How do you write a formula for calculating "Stuff happens"?
The only thing that can be counted on is that you WILL break bits occasionally. Keep spares on hand.
CarveOne
CarveOne
http://www.carveonecncwoodcraft.com